Fresh from a successful Arc de Triomphe pick, the Weekend Winners panel turned its attention to one of Ascot’s trickiest betting puzzles: the Challenge Cup. With 18 runners set to go to post for the seven-furlong heritage handicap, the race promises pace, angles and plenty of debate before the stalls open at 3.35pm on Saturday.
The early market has installed Thunder Call as favourite for William Haggas, while Moonfall and Royal Ascot winner Mezcala add further quality to a race that rarely lacks drama. But in a contest where the draw, race tempo and track position can matter just as much as pure ability, the panel leaned toward value rather than short-priced certainty.
A wide-open Ascot handicap with no easy answers
The Challenge Cup has earned its name. In a maximum field, with a seven-furlong trip and a heritage handicap profile, even the most experienced punters know that getting the race shape right is half the battle.
That was the central theme of the discussion. Thunder Call may lead the betting, but there was little appetite to take a short price in a race where several runners bring compelling claims. The course configuration, along with Ascot’s tendency to reward smart positioning, makes the race especially demanding.
One panel insight captured the mood perfectly: “It lives up to its name, this Challenge Cup, because it’s not easy.” That sense of uncertainty is exactly why the betting conversation quickly moved toward horses offering a bit more value.
Mezcala’s Ascot form keeps him firmly in the frame
Mezcala emerged as the most persuasive name in the analysis. The argument was simple: his best Ascot form stands up well, and this return to track and trip could be just what he needs to bounce back.
The horse was a Royal Ascot winner and has already shown he can be effective when held up and delivered late. His Buckingham Palace Stakes run was highlighted as particularly encouraging, with the race set up nicely for him down the rail. He travelled with cover, produced his best work late and was not far away from a stronger result.
There was also some sympathy for his latest run at Doncaster, where low draws proved influential and his position in stall 14 did not help. The panel felt he may also have been slightly stretched by a mark of 98, though he has since been given a pound back, which could prove useful in a tight handicap.
As one analyst put it, the key is simple: if Mezcala returns to that better Ascot form, “he’s going to go close.” That is a strong endorsement in a race of this depth.
Why the return to Ascot matters
Ascot often rewards horses that can settle, conserve energy and time their finishing effort perfectly. Mezcala has already shown he can do that here, and his familiarity with the track could be a major asset if the race becomes tactical.
The horse’s regular rider George Bass is also back aboard, a combination the panel clearly trusts. In a race where traffic and track position can decide the outcome, a proven partnership matters.
One quote summed up the confidence around the selection: “I’m also keeping the faith with Mezcala here and hoping that all goes well for him.” That kind of conviction is usually reserved for horses with the right profile, not just the right price.
Thunder Call respected, but not everyone is sold at the price
Thunder Call is clearly a major player and his market position reflects that. However, the panel was wary of getting involved at 11/4 in such a competitive handicap, especially when several rivals have strong course-and-distance arguments of their own.
Respect for the favourite was clear, but so was the preference to search for a runner with a little more room in the odds. In races like this, value can often matter more than reputation, and the panel’s approach reflected that philosophy.
Moonfall also remains a serious contender, adding another layer of intrigue to an already deep field. But for those seeking an each-way angle, Mezcala’s blend of Ascot form, proven finishing kick and workable profile made him the headline recommendation.
| Runner | Key case | Price mentioned |
|---|---|---|
| Thunder Call | Early market favourite for Haggas team | 11/4 |
| Moonfall | Live opposition in the handicap | Not stated |
| Mezcala | Royal Ascot winner with strong Ascot form | 15/2 |
| Hawksbill | Richard Spencer runner with place claims | About 20/1 |
| Two Tribes | Another Spencer contender in the line-up | About 20/1 |
Handicap nuance could decide the finish
There was also a warning that the race may split in running, particularly with Ascot’s straight track and the need to keep the surface fresh for Champions Day. In a big-field handicap, that kind of nuance can be decisive, especially if the pace is not as strong as expected.
That possibility makes the early pace map important. If Port Master does not line up, the race may lose some obvious pace influence, increasing the chance of a messy, stop-start contest. That scenario would only sharpen the focus on horses with the ability to settle and finish strongly.
Richard Spencer’s pair, Hawksbill and Two Tribes, were also mentioned as outsiders capable of running into the frame, particularly with Hawksbill’s proven Ascot form and Toby Moore’s valuable seven-pound claim. But the overall verdict remained that Mezcala offers the best blend of upside and price.
Final betting view
In a race where confidence is hard to come by, Mezcala stands out as the horse most likely to reward support. His best Ascot efforts are better than his latest result suggests, and the return to a track and trip that suit his style could be the spark he needs.
With the favourite respected but not fully embraced, the panel’s message was clear: this is a race to approach with caution, but Mezcala has the profile of a runner ready to go very close if things fall into place.
As ever at Ascot, the final margin may be fine. But in the Challenge Cup, fine margins are exactly what decide the prize.
