Senior figures in football are increasingly uneasy about a scenario that once sounded unlikely: Manchester City potentially lining up in next season’s Champions League even if the club faces severe punishment over financial rule breaches. The issue has sharpened the debate around sporting merit, licensing rules and what happens when domestic discipline collides with European qualification.
Why the concern is growing
Manchester City are already under pressure after an independent commission found the club guilty of multiple charges linked to inflating sponsorship revenue and hiding expenses. The report said the alleged financial advantage stretched across several seasons and would have left the club in breach of Premier League profit and sustainability rules in every season from 2009-10 to 2017-18.
City strongly deny wrongdoing and have described the outcome as part of a “Premier League conspiracy.” The club has also lodged an appeal, meaning the disciplinary process is still far from complete.
European football’s awkward timeline
The main fear is simple: if City win the Champions League this season, they would qualify as titleholders for next season’s competition regardless of where they finish domestically. That possibility has triggered alarm because there is currently no automatic mechanism to remove a club from a European competition it has qualified for on sporting merit.
One senior source said the matter “had been raised” and any solution would require “joined up thinking.” That concern is echoed across both English football and European governance circles, where the optics of a heavily sanctioned club continuing in elite continental competition would be hard to ignore.
How the licence system works
Every club needs a Uefa licence to play in European competition. In City’s case, the immediate question is whether that licence could be denied if sanctions are eventually confirmed. The answer appears to be complicated.
The licences are issued by the Football Association, though the process is delegated to the Premier League. Crucially, they are based on current information and do not take historical breaches or future sanctions into account. If a club meets the minimum criteria, the licence cannot simply be refused.
Those criteria usually focus on overdue payments to other clubs, players or tax authorities, along with certain integrity issues such as recent match-fixing convictions or multi-club ownership conflicts. None of those appear to offer a straightforward route to block City right now.
What punishment could still follow
If City lose their appeal, the club could face major sanctions. Possible punishments include a heavy points deduction, a substantial fine and even a transfer embargo. A separate sanctioning hearing, which will decide the scale of any penalty, has not yet been scheduled.
That creates a difficult sporting scenario. A points deduction could prevent City from qualifying through league position, but they could still reach Europe through cup success. Winning the FA Cup would secure Europa League football, while winning the Carabao Cup could deliver a place in the Conference League.
| Potential route | European reward |
|---|---|
| Champions League win | Champions League qualification as titleholders |
| FA Cup win | Europa League qualification |
| Carabao Cup win | Conference League qualification |
Uefa’s next move
Uefa cannot act until the Premier League process concludes, but discussions are expected to take place within the Uefa administration and the Club Financial Control Body. If City are eventually found liable and also qualify for Europe, Uefa may have to open a disciplinary case to find a way to remove them from next season’s tournament.
That would not be straightforward. City successfully overturned a previous two-year European ban in 2020, with the Court of Arbitration for Sport ruling that the earlier allegations were time-barred under Uefa rules. That precedent is one reason some observers believe any new attempt could become another prolonged legal battle.
“The grounds to refuse one are unclear,” one source said, highlighting the legal uncertainty around European licensing.
A battle over optics and precedent
Beyond the legal detail, this is also a story about credibility. Senior figures in both English and European football are aware of how damaging it would look if City were hit with strong domestic sanctions but still competed in the Champions League next season.
There is also concern that the entire process may not be finished by the end of the season. The Premier League introduced time-frame clauses in its regulations during the summer, but there is no certainty those rules apply to the City case. If they do, a judgment on sanctions would need to arrive by January. If not, the uncertainty could drag on much longer.
For now, the picture remains unresolved. City insist on their innocence, the appeal is ongoing, and the possible European consequences remain tangled in procedure, timing and precedent. But the bigger the sanctions become, the harder it will be for football authorities to explain how a club can be punished at home and still compete at the summit of Europe.
The coming months may decide far more than one club’s future. They could shape how football handles historical breaches, how Uefa protects competition integrity, and whether sporting success can still override disciplinary chaos.
