Pakistan v Sri Lanka 1st Test Preview: Data Gives Pakistan a Slim Edge in Rawalpindi

Rawalpindi is set to host the opening Test of the Sri Lanka in Pakistan series on Monday, 9 November 2026, and the CricStats numbers point to a tight contest. Pakistan edge the data lean at 55%-45%, but patchy form on both sides keeps this one wide open.

What the Numbers Suggest

CricStats has crunched head-to-head history, recent results and venue trends to build a data lean for this fixture. The verdict: Pakistan are slight favourites on the numbers, 55% to 45%.

That is a lean, not a lock. Neither side arrives in convincing form, and a margin this small leaves plenty of room for a swing.

Head-to-Head: Pakistan Hold the Edge

Across 59 Tests dating back to the first meeting in 1982, Pakistan have won 23 and Sri Lanka 17. The other 19 finished as ties, draws or no results.

Recent Meetings

Pakistan have won four of the last five Tests between these sides. Sri Lanka’s only win in that run came at Galle in July 2022, by 246 runs.

Form Check: Two Sides Searching for Rhythm

Pakistan have won three and lost seven of their last 10 completed Tests. Their three most recent results were all defeats to England, including an innings loss on 19 August 2026.

Sri Lanka have two wins, five defeats and three draws from their last 10. Their latest outing was a draw with India on 23 August 2026, after a 165-run loss in the previous Test.

Pakistan’s recent win rate is 30%. Sri Lanka’s is 29% once draws are set aside. Neither side has momentum, so the margin between them stays thin.

The Rawalpindi Factor

Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium has staged 14 completed Tests. Teams batting first have won three of them and teams chasing have won two, so the venue shows no strong lean either way.

The average first-innings total here is 338. Win the toss and post a score near that mark, and the pressure shifts quickly. Pakistan and Sri Lanka have met at this ground twice before.

Players Who Have Been in Form

Squads are not confirmed, so these are players who have performed well over the last 12 months, not guaranteed starters.

Pakistan

Babar Azam has 290 runs in eight innings, with a best of 88. Shan Masood has 273 runs with a top score of 109, and Abdullah Shafique has 268 runs including a 160.

With the ball, Mohammad Abbas has 21 wickets in four matches. Mohammad Ali has 17 in five and Ali Usman 12 in four.

Sri Lanka

Sonal Dinusha stands out with 595 runs in eight innings, including a best of 133. Dhananjaya de Silva has 298 runs with a top score of 120, and Kamindu Mendis has 240.

Asitha Fernando has taken 17 wickets in four matches. Prabath Jayasuriya has 12 in three, and Milan Rathnayaka has six in two.

Fixture History Since 2021

Dhananjaya de Silva leads the run charts in this fixture since 2021 with 447 runs in eight innings. Abdullah Shafique is next with 417 in seven, then Babar Azam with 347 in seven.

Prabath Jayasuriya tops the wicket column with 26. Ramesh Mendis has 18 for Sri Lanka and Naseem Shah has 16 for Pakistan.

CricStats Prediction

The data lean favours Pakistan at 55%, with Sri Lanka at 45%. Pakistan’s head-to-head record and their four wins in the last five meetings drive that edge.

The caution is just as clear. Pakistan have lost seven of their last 10 Tests, and Sri Lanka have been similarly inconsistent. With Rawalpindi’s average first-innings score at 338, the side that bats well early could decide the series opener.

It is what the numbers suggest, not a certainty. Test cricket has a habit of ignoring the script.